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经济代写|博弈论代写Game Theory代考|Behavior of the Contractor
Recall the assumptions for producers’ behavior from Chapter 4: (i) factors of production (inputs) are scarce; (ii) producers face investment constraints; (iii) producers maximize their profits; and (iv) producers decide rationally.
Contractors work in a highly competitive environment, and certainly inputs are scarce and the cost of these inputs reflect the relative scarcity. The costs of inputs differ, however, around the world. Most prominent is the range of wages, from less than 1 USD per hour to more than 40 USD per hour. Construction firms on average have a low equity which leads to strong investment constraints. The low profit margins require constant attention to profit maximization. So far, the assumptions for producer behavior hold also for contractors. The last assumption needs modification: The complexity and singularity of projects lead to incomplete and ambiguous information and in turn to mistakes. Rationality for contractors is bounded, i.e. they intend to behave rationally but fail to do so at times. Any modeling of contractors’ behavior must refer to bounded rationality. A result of bounded rationality is the inaccuracy of estimates and schedules.
Further data support the conclusion that I have drawn on profits and equity. Runeson (2000) reports for Australia profits of $4 \%$ of turnover without specifying the point of reporting in the business cycle and without reference to the legal form of the firms. These small profits lead to short lifespans for the firms: Only $44 \%$ of the Australian building firms have been in business more than 10 years. The data by Runeson refer to profit according to accounting principles.
There is a difference between accounting profits and economic profits, as shown in Table 12.1. Accounting profits are calculated on the basis of generally accepted accounting principles, while economic profits are calculated according to the principles of opportunity costs. One difference is the evaluation of assets. This is based on book value in accounting and on market value in determining economic profits. In addition, opportunity costs comprise interest on equity and payment of the owner’s salary in case of owner proprietorships.
The theory of perfectly competitive markets posits that economic profits are zero in the long run because the lack of entry and exit barriers attracts competition in economic upturns (booms), which in turn drives economic profits toward zero. The opposite happens in downturns (busts), when exits lower competition and take pressure from pricing, thus allowing an upward trend toward zero economic profits.
经济代写|博弈论代写Game Theory代考|Legal Organization
A major influence is the legal organization. Basic options are stock corporations, limited liability corporations, and owner proprietorships. The legal organization influences ownership, management, control, reporting, as well as the ability to procure loans and profit. The last point is of special economic importance, and it allows us to return a third time to the question of contractor’s profits.
I assume for the following analysis that firms with more than 200 employees are all stock corporations, firms with at least 20 and less than 199 employees all limited liability corporations, and firms with less than 20 employees all owner proprietorships. Taxes are comparable for all types of legal organization (around $30 \%$ ). This allows us to calculate average profits and taxes per class by using published information.
Table 12.2 provides data for German contractors with different legal organizations for the year 2019, a boom year. Assume the sum of financial assets per class allows calculating the average equity per class. With an estimated interest rate of $5 \%$ and a dividend of $25 \%$ for stock corporations, it is possible to calculate the financial burden per firm. Owners in proprietorships must subtract their salary from profits as opportunity costs; a value of $85000 €$ per owner is conservative. It is not surprising that the net profits for owner proprietorships are negative in Table 12.2. We started from the average profit for all firms. The actual profit is highest for small firms, exactly because management salary is subtracted later. Different from the assumptions in Table 12.2, the profit for owner proprietorships is higher than $7 \%$ and that for stock corporations is lower. Only the overall economic profit of roughly 716 million $€$ is meaningful.
The result of the calculation is a net profit of not even $10,000 €$ per year and company in boom times. This is a clear signal of a very competitive result, close to the ideal of zero economic profits for competitive markets.
Interesting is a comparison with the year ending the recession from 1995 to 2005 . The comparison between 2019 (boom) and 2005 (bust) allows us to have a glimpse at the longterm economic profits in construction. Using the actual data for 2004 (number of companies) and 2005 (turnover, average profit) and the same assumptions as above allows calculating the economic profit. This amounts to a loss of $€ 2.600$ million during a recession compared with a profit of $€ 716$ million at boom times. The conclusion of the several discussions of profit must be that construction sector works close to the ideal of a perfectly competitive market with zero economic profit. There is even a small doubt that the long-term average economic profit is below zero.
This might be different for the individual contractor. Some will still make a profit in a downswing and others will go bankrupt. All are fighting to survive in a competitive industry.
博弈论代考
经济代写|博弈论代写Game Theory代考|Behavior of the Contractor
回顾第 4 章中关于生产者行为的假设：(i) 生产要素（投入）稀缺；(ii) 生产者面临投资限制；(iii) 生产者最大化他们的利润；(iv) 生产者理性决定。
承包商在竞争激烈的环境中工作，当然投入是稀缺的，而这些投入的成本反映了相对稀缺。然而，世界各地的投入成本各不相同。最突出的是工资范围，从每小时不到 1 美元到每小时 40 美元以上。建筑公司的平均股权较低，这导致了强大的投资约束。低利润率需要不断关注利润最大化。到目前为止，生产者行为的假设也适用于承包商。最后一个假设需要修改：项目的复杂性和单一性导致信息不完整和模糊，进而导致错误。承包商的理性是有限的，即他们打算理性行事，但有时却做不到。承包商行为的任何建模都必须参考有限理性。有限理性的结果是估计和时间表的不准确。
进一步的数据支持我根据利润和权益得出的结论。Runeson (2000) 报告澳大利亚利润4%营业额，但没有具体说明商业周期中的报告点，也没有参考公司的法律形式。这些微薄的利润导致企业寿命缩短：仅44%的澳大利亚建筑公司已经营超过 10 年。Runeson 的数据是指根据会计准则的利润。
会计利润和经济利润之间存在差异，如表12.1所示。会计利润是根据公认的会计原则计算的，而经济利润是根据机会成本的原则计算的。一个区别是资产的评估。这在会计上是基于账面价值，在确定经济利润时是基于市场价值。此外，机会成本包括股权利息和所有者独资企业支付的工资。
完全竞争市场理论认为，从长远来看，经济利润为零，因为缺乏进入和退出壁垒会在经济好转（繁荣）时吸引竞争，进而推动经济利润趋向于零。相反的情况发生在经济低迷时期（萧条时期），当退出较低的竞争并承受定价压力时，从而允许出现零经济利润的上升趋势。
经济代写|博弈论代写Game Theory代考|Legal Organization
一个主要的影响是法律组织。基本选择是股份公司、有限责任公司和所有者独资企业。合法组织影响所有权、管理、控制、报告以及获得贷款和利润的能力。最后一点具有特殊的经济意义，它使我们能够第三次回到承包商利润的问题上。
对于以下分析，我假设雇员超过 200 人的公司都是股份公司，雇员至少 20 人且少于 199 人的公司都是有限责任公司，雇员少于 20 人的公司都是所有者独资企业。所有类型的合法组织的税收都具有可比性（大约30%). 这使我们能够使用已发布的信息来计算每个类别的平均利润和税收。
表 12.2 提供了 2019 年（繁荣的一年）德国承包商与不同法律组织的数据。假设每个类别的金融资产总和允许计算每个类别的平均权益。估计利率为5%和股息25%对于股份公司，可以计算每家公司的财务负担。独资企业的所有者必须从利润中减去工资作为机会成本；的价值€85000€每个所有者是保守的。表 12.2 中所有者独资企业的净利润为负值也就不足为奇了。我们从所有公司的平均利润开始。小公司的实际利润最高，正是因为管理人员的工资是在后面减去的。与表 12.2 中的假设不同，所有者独资企业的利润高于7%而对于股份公司来说则更低。仅综合经济利润约7.16亿元€€是有意义的。
计算的结果是净利润不到€10,000€每年和公司在繁荣时期。这是一个非常有竞争力的结果的明确信号，接近竞争市场零经济利润的理想。
有趣的是与 1995 年至 2005 年经济衰退结束的那一年进行比较。对比 2019 年（繁荣）和 2005 年（萧条），我们可以窥见建筑业的长期经济利润。使用 2004 年（公司数量）和 2005 年（营业额、平均利润）的实际数据和与上述相同的假设可以计算经济利润。这相当于损失€€2.600百万美元与经济衰退期间的利润相比€€716百万在繁荣时期。几次关于利润的讨论得出的结论必然是，建筑业的工作接近于经济利润为零的完全竞争市场的理想。甚至有人怀疑长期平均经济利润低于零。
对于个体承包商而言，这可能有所不同。有些人仍会在下行时期获利，而另一些人则会破产。所有人都在为在竞争激烈的行业中生存而战。
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