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经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Real business cycles

So far we have mostly talked about long-term dynamics, the process of capital accumulation, intergenerational issues, etc. However, a lot of macroeconomics focuses on the short term – the departures from the long-run trend that we’ve been mostly concerned about. This is, of course, particularly evident in recession times! Some of the biggest questions in macroeconomics revolve around this: how can we understand and influence the short-run, cyclical evolution of the economy? What can we (or should we) do about recessions?

These are obviously important questions, and they are very much at the heart of the development of macroeconomics as a discipline, as we discussed in the first chapter of the book. In fact, business cycles is where the distinction between macroeconomic schools of thought became more evident giving credence to the idea that economists never agree with each other. Many of your policy recommendations will derive from which view of the world you have.

Essentially, one school is ingrained in the Keynesian perspective where there is scope for intervening on the cycle and that doing so is welfare-improving. Its modern version is the New Keynesian approach originated in the $1980 \mathrm{~s}$ in response to the empirical and methodological challenges from the 1970s. The second approach is quite skeptical about what policy can or should do, as it views the cycle as the result of optimal adjustments to real shocks. Its modern version was born, also in the 1980s, with the so-called Real Business Cycle (RBC) framework, which argued that a perfectly competitive economy, with no distortions or aggregate imbalances of the Keynesian type, but subject to productivity shocks, could largely replicate the business-cycle frequency data for real-world economies.
Recent years have seen a great deal of methodological convergence, with both views adopting, to a large extent, the so-called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework that essentially implements the NGM with whatever exogenous shocks and market imperfections that you may feel are relevant. Because this model can be specified to work as a perfectly competitive distortion-free economy, or as one with more Keynesian-type characteristics, it has become the new workhorse of macroeconomics. This has allowed for a more unified conversation in recent decades.

In light of that, and because we have covered much of the ground when we studied the NGM, we will start by describing the RBC framework, which started the trend that turned the NGM into the workhorse of modern macroeconomics. This framework, from a theory standpoint, is, conceptually, a simple extension of the NGM to a context with stochastic shocks.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The basic RBC model

The basic RBC model, first introduced by Kydland and Prescott (1982), is built around a typical NGM framework of intertemporal maximisation. There are three differences with what we’ve seen so far in the book. First, we introduce uncertainty in the form of exogenous productivity shocks, without which (as we’ve seen) no fluctuations emerge. Second, we also introduce a choice of how much labour will be supplied – in other words, there is a labour-leisure choice. This is what will enable us to say something about fluctuations in employment. Finally, RBC models typically use discrete time. This is so because the objective is to compare the simulated data from the model with that of the real data, which is always discrete, and also because the models quickly become too complicated for analytical solutions. One has to resort to numerical methods of solution, and computers can more easily handle discrete data.
The consumer’s problem works as follows:
$$
\operatorname{Max} E\left[\sum_t\left(\frac{1}{1+\rho}\right)^t\left((1-\phi) u\left(c_t\right)+\phi v\left(h_t\right)\right)\right]
$$
subject to the household budget constraint in which individuals own the capital stock and labour endowment, and rent those out to the firms,
$$
k_{t+1}=l_t w_t+\left(1+r_t\right) k_t-c_t,
$$
the production function,
$$
f\left(k_t, l_t, z_t\right)=z_t k_t^\alpha l_t^{1-\alpha},
$$
the labour endowment equation,
$$
h_t+l_t=1,
$$
and a productivity shock process
$$
z_{t+1}=\varphi z_t+\varepsilon_{t+1} .
$$
$c_t$ is consumption, $h_t$ indicates leisure, $r_t$ is the rate of return on capital (net of depreciation), $k_t$ is the capital stock, $l_t$ is the amount of labour devoted to market activities. ${ }^1$ Finally, $z_t$ is a productivity parameter which is subject to random shocks $\varepsilon_t$. The rest are parameters which should be relatively self-explanatory.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON102

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写宏观经济代考|真实的商业周期


到目前为止,我们主要讨论了长期动态、资本积累过程、代际问题等。然而,许多宏观经济学关注的是短期——我们最关心的长期趋势的背离。当然,这在经济衰退时期尤其明显!宏观经济学中一些最大的问题围绕着这个问题:我们如何理解和影响经济的短期周期性演进?对于衰退,我们能(或者应该)做些什么?


这些显然是重要的问题,它们是宏观经济学作为一门学科发展的核心,正如我们在本书第一章中所讨论的那样。事实上,在商业周期中,宏观经济学派之间的区别变得更加明显,这让人们相信经济学家之间从来没有意见一致的想法。你的许多政策建议将源自你的世界观


从本质上讲,有一个学派根深蒂固地信奉凯恩斯主义的观点,认为干预经济周期是有余地的,这样做是在改善福利。它的现代版本是新凯恩斯主义方法,起源于$1980 \mathrm{~s}$,以应对20世纪70年代的经验和方法论挑战。第二种方法对政策能够或应该做什么持相当怀疑的态度,因为它认为周期是针对实际冲击进行最优调整的结果。它的现代版本诞生于20世纪80年代,即所谓的真实商业周期(RBC)框架。该框架认为,一个完全竞争的经济体,没有凯恩斯式的扭曲或总体失衡,但受生产率冲击影响,可以在很大程度上复制现实世界经济体的商业周期频率数据。近年来,出现了大量方法上的趋同,两种观点在很大程度上都采用了所谓的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)框架,该框架在你可能认为相关的任何外生冲击和市场不完善的情况下,基本上实现了NGM。由于该模型可以被指定为完全竞争的无扭曲经济,或者具有更多凯恩斯式特征的经济,它已成为宏观经济学的新主力。这使得近几十年来的对话更加统一


鉴于此,并且由于我们在研究NGM时已经涵盖了很多内容,我们将从RBC框架开始介绍,该框架开启了NGM成为现代宏观经济学主力的趋势。从理论的角度来看,这个框架在概念上是NGM到随机冲击的一个简单扩展

经济代写|宏观经济学代写宏观经济学代考| RBC基本模型

.


由Kydland和Prescott(1982)首次提出的基本RBC模型是围绕跨期最大化的典型NGM框架建立的。这本书与我们目前所看到的有三个不同之处。首先,我们以外生生产力冲击的形式引入了不确定性,没有它(正如我们所见)就不会出现波动。其次,我们还引入了劳动力供给的选择——换句话说,这是劳动-休闲的选择。这将使我们能够对就业的波动说些什么。最后,RBC模型通常使用离散时间。这是因为我们的目标是将来自模型的模拟数据与真实数据进行比较,而真实数据总是离散的,也因为模型很快变得过于复杂,无法进行解析解。人们必须求助于数值解法,计算机可以更容易地处理离散数据。
消费者问题的工作原理如下:
$$
\operatorname{Max} E\left[\sum_t\left(\frac{1}{1+\rho}\right)^t\left((1-\phi) u\left(c_t\right)+\phi v\left(h_t\right)\right)\right]
$$
受限于家庭预算约束,其中个人拥有资本库存和劳动禀赋,并将其出租给企业,
$$
k_{t+1}=l_t w_t+\left(1+r_t\right) k_t-c_t,
$$
是生产函数,
$$
f\left(k_t, l_t, z_t\right)=z_t k_t^\alpha l_t^{1-\alpha},
$$
是劳动禀赋方程,
$$
h_t+l_t=1,
$$
和一个生产力冲击过程
$$
z_{t+1}=\varphi z_t+\varepsilon_{t+1} .
$$
$c_t$是消费,$h_t$表示休闲,$r_t$是资本回报率(扣除折旧后的净额),$k_t$是资本存量,$l_t$是投入到市场活动中的劳动量。${ }^1$最后,$z_t$是一个受随机冲击影响的生产率参数$\varepsilon_t$。其余的是相对自解释的参数

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考

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