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经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|EMPIRICAL TESTS OF THE HO THEOREM: LEONTIEF PARADOX

The foremost empirical test of the HO theorem was done by Leontief (1954). Using the data for exports and imports of the United States after World War II, he observed that it was exporting relatively labour-intensive goods to the rest of the world. But the United States was by far

the most capital-abundant country in the world. Given the export composition of the United States in 1947, Leontief estimated labour and capital requirements for producing a bundle of export goods to be worth USD 1 million. On the other hand, observing the import composition of its imports, he estimated labour and capital required to produce USD 1 million worth of imports if these were produced in the United States instead of being imported. His estimates showed that domestic production of the imported goods would have required 30 per cent more capital per worker than what the production of export goods required. He repeated his tests for 1951 and observed a similar pattern of trade though the relative capital intensity of import replacement was substantially less than what it was in 1947. Hence, he concluded that the United States was importing relatively capital-intensive goods. This observation, known as the Leontief Paradox, raised considerable interest among trade theorists to reconcile it with the $\mathrm{HO}$ theorem that a capital abundant country should export relatively capital intensive goods. Further tests for 1962 data supported the paradox, but for 1972, Stern and Maskus (1981) observed the paradox to vanish for the United States. Leontief’s test, when applied to other countries’ trade data, yielded similar paradoxical results. Pattern of trade in more recent times for China and India, for example, also provide indirect evidence that a country’s trade pattern may not be fully consistent with its endowment pattern. Despite these countries being unskilled labour-abundant countries, their basket of exports even to the skilled-labour-abundant countries contains a large proportion of high-technology and skill-intensive commodities.
A theoretical reconciliation of the Leontief Paradox with the HO theorem was offered primarily in terms of a stronger taste bias, factor intensity reversal, and cross-country technology differences. As explained in the earlier chapters, if consumers in a labour-abundant country have a very strong taste bias in labour-intensive commodities, the country may end up exporting capital-intensive commodities. In case of factor intensity reversal, on the other hand, referring back to Figure $6.10$, when the endowment differences of the countries are too large, relative wages in the two countries differ in a way that textiles are produced with relatively labour-intensive techniques in the home country but by relatively capital-intensive techniques in the foreign country. Thus, if the capital and labour required to produce import replacements in the foreign country are measured, as Leontief did, it will appear that the foreign country being relatively capital abundant imports relatively capital-intensive textiles.

经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|Factor Immobility and Specific Factors

Recall that one of the assumptions of the HOS model is that all factors move freely and instantaneously from one sector to another within a country that offers a higher rate of return. But this may not be the case always. Some factors are less mobile than others. For example, in the very short run, we can expect that physical capital is completely immobile. It is only in the medium or long run that physical capital employed or installed in one sector can be transferred to the other sector. The immediate implication of this immobility of physical capital within a country is that if initially there had been any difference in the rate of return to capital in the two sectors, that difference will persist in the short run, though it will evaporate in the long run when capital can move to the high-return sector. ${ }^1$ This case of immobility of some factors significantly alters almost all the core propositions of the HOS model.

Alternatively, all factors may be mobile even in the short run, but different sectors may require different skill levels and/or different types of capital. For example, production of computers requires the skills of hardware engineers, which is not of much use in textile production. Production of textiles requires altogether different types of skilled workers. Similarly, capital required to produce computers may be of a different type than the capital required to produce textiles. Thus, factors may have sector-specific use. This specific factor case in essence is the same as the case of factor immobility in the sense that the rate of return for specific types of capital or skills will differ across sectors. The difference between the two cases, however, is that the differential rates of return will persist even in the long run in the specific factor case. Once again, the core propositions are altered in the same fashion as in the case of factor immobility. To illustrate, we follow the Specific Factor (henceforth, SF) model developed by Ronald W. Jones (1971). This model essentially extends the $2 \times 2$ HOS model into a twocommodity-three-factor model. Thus, what this SF model indicates is that some of the core propositions or the properties of the $2 \times 2$ HOS model do not extend to higher dimensions.

经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考|ECON440

经济代写|国际经济学代写国际经济学代考| HO定理的实证检验:LEONTIEF悖论


对HO定理最重要的经验检验是由Leontief(1954)完成的。利用美国在二战后的进出口数据,他注意到美国向世界其他地区出口的是相对劳动密集型的商品。但到目前为止,美国是


世界上资本最丰富的国家。考虑到1947年美国的出口构成,Leontief估计生产一捆出口货物所需的劳动力和资本价值为100万美元。另一方面,观察其进口的进口构成,他估计,如果这些进口是在美国生产而不是进口,则生产价值100万美元的进口所需的劳动力和资本。他的估计显示,每名工人在国内生产进口货物所需的资本比生产出口货物所需的资本多30%。他重复了1951年的测试,并观察到类似的贸易模式,尽管进口替代的相对资本密集度大大低于1947年。因此,他得出的结论是,美国进口的是相对资本密集型的商品。这个被称为Leontief悖论的观察结果引起了贸易理论家的极大兴趣,他们想把它与$\mathrm{HO}$定理(资本充裕的国家应该出口相对资本密集型的商品)调和起来。对1962年数据的进一步检验支持这个悖论,但在1972年,Stern和Maskus(1981)观察到这个悖论在美国消失了。莱昂蒂夫的检验在应用于其他国家的贸易数据时,得出了类似的矛盾结果。例如,中国和印度近代的贸易模式也提供了间接证据,表明一个国家的贸易模式可能与其禀赋模式并不完全一致。尽管这些国家是非熟练劳动力丰富的国家,但它们的一篮子出口,即使是对熟练劳动力丰富的国家,也含有很大比例的高技术和技能密集的商品。Leontief悖论与HO定理的理论和解主要是在更强的味觉偏差、因素强度逆转和跨国技术差异方面提出的。如前几章所述,如果一个劳动密集型国家的消费者对劳动密集型商品有非常强烈的偏好,那么这个国家最终可能会出口资本密集型商品。另一方面,在要素强度反转的情况下,回到图$6.10$,当两国禀赋差异过大时,两国相对工资的差异是:纺织品在本国使用相对劳动密集型的技术生产,而在外国使用相对资本密集型的技术生产。因此,如果像Leontief所做的那样衡量在外国生产进口替代品所需的资本和劳动力,就会出现资本相对充裕的外国进口资本相对密集的纺织品

经济代写|国际经济学代写国际经济代考|因素不流动和特定因素

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回想一下,居者有其屋模式的一个假设是,在一个回报率较高的国家内,所有因素都可以自由和立即地从一个部门转移到另一个部门。但情况并非总是如此。有些因素的流动性比其他因素要小。例如,在非常短期内,我们可以预期实物资本是完全不可流动的。只有在中期或长期内,一个部门雇用或安装的实物资本才能转移到另一个部门。一个国家内物质资本不流动的直接影响是,如果最初这两个部门的资本回报率有任何差异,这种差异将在短期内持续存在,尽管在长期内当资本可以转移到高回报部门时,这种差异将消失。${ }^1$某些因素的不灵活性大大改变了居者有其屋模式的几乎所有核心命题。


或者,即使在短期内,所有因素都可能是可移动的,但不同的部门可能需要不同的技能水平和/或不同类型的资本。例如,生产计算机需要硬件工程师的技能,而这在纺织生产中没有多大用处。纺织品生产需要完全不同类型的熟练工人。同样,生产计算机所需的资本可能与生产纺织品所需的资本类型不同。因此,这些因素可能有特定部门的用途。这种特定要素的情况本质上与要素不流动的情况相同,因为特定类型的资本或技能的回报率会因部门而异。然而,这两种情况的不同之处在于,即使在特定因素的情况下,不同的收益率也会长期存在。核心命题再次以与因素不流动情况相同的方式改变。为了说明这一点,我们遵循罗纳德·w·琼斯(Ronald W. Jones, 1971)开发的特定因素(Specific Factor,下文简称SF)模型。这个模型基本上将$2 \times 2$ HOS模型扩展为一个两商品三因素模型。因此,这个SF模型表明$2 \times 2$ HOS模型的一些核心命题或属性不能扩展到更高的维度

经济代写|国际经济学代写International Economics代考

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