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经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考|Income – Who Has Technology Affected the Most?

Global wealth in terms of GDP and per capita income is at record levels and development indices for basic indicators such as health and education seem to be improving in most developing countries. The structural transformation in the past decades has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and created a strong middle class in many developing countries, thus serving as the engine of further economic growth. However, while incomes between countries have started converging, the incomes within countries have been diverging. The fruits of economic growth have not been uniformly distributed. The World Inequality Report 2018 found the top $1 \%$ of the world captured twice as much real income growth as the bottom $50 \%$ of the population between 1980 and 2016. The same report showed that income inequality (the share of total national income accounted for by the top $10 \%$ of earners) has increased across the world, from China, India and Sub-Saharan Africa to the United States and Europe, with varying magnitudes. A wide variety of reasons have been provided for such increasing inequalities, including changing distribution of political power (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2008), presence and strength of political and economic institutions (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2014), fiscal and social policy (Dervis and Qureshi, 2016), and globalization and technology (Dabla-Norris et al., 2015).
To understand how technology is affecting inequality, it is useful to consider the three ways in which household income distribution is interpreted (UNDP, 2013).

Primary income distribution is the distribution of household incomes consisting of the (sometimes cumulated) different factor incomes such as rent, wages and profits as determined by markets and market institutions for different factors of production within each household before taxes and subsidies.
Secondary income distribution is the distribution of household incomes after deduction of taxes and inclusion of transfer payments (i.e. as determined by fiscal policies).

Tertiary income distribution is the distribution of household incomes when imputed benefits from public expenditure are added to household income, after taxes and subsidies.

经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考|A Luddite’s Nightmare or a Passing Phenomenon?

Technology has brought about immense changes in society, for better or for worse. The narrative so far might suggest a Luddite’s hand behind it. ${ }^3$

Is technology really going to create a true Keynesian “world of leisure”, in which technology replaces humans and humans enjoy more leisure time? There is a spectrum of opinions on whether technology will displace or complement humans. For some more optimistic constituents, the present is not so different from the past. Throughout history, new technologies have been initially accompanied by stagnant wages and rising inequality. This was true during the Industrial Revolution in the early 19th century and during the wave of electrification that began at the end of the 19th century. After some decades, however, these patterns reversed; large numbers of ordinary workers eventually enjoyed robust wage growth thanks to new technology (Bessen, 2015). The steam engine took over from horse-drawn carriages, giving new meaning to the word mobility. In the process, some lost their jobs. But an entire transportation industry was born, which employed many more people subsequently and fuelled industrialization in Europe and around the world.

Whether one takes an optimistic or a cynical view of technology and the permanence of its effects on the society and economy, the paradigm of economic development at large will be in a state of flux and uncertainty for some time to come. The rewards of the second machine age will no doubt be large for some. However, the key to real development in the coming years will be to distribute such rewards more equitably. This will require conscious intervention on the part of governments, societies, corporations and individuals.
Whether the pace of change will be gradual or rapid is also an open question. If the pace of growth in automation and artificial intelligence just in the last five years is any indication, however, the pace of change will accelerate. The disruptions already caused by technology and its capacity to cause more on which economic development efforts of governments and development partners alike are based. The past may not provide sufficient guidance on this.

经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考|EC982

经济代写|发展经济学代写发展经济学代考|收入-技术对谁的影响最大?


以国内生产总值和人均收入衡量的全球财富处于创纪录水平,在大多数发展中国家,保健和教育等基本指标的发展指数似乎正在改善。过去几十年的结构转型使数亿人摆脱了贫困,并在许多发展中国家造就了一个强大的中产阶级,从而成为进一步经济增长的引擎。然而,虽然国家之间的收入已经开始趋同,但国家内部的收入却一直在分化。经济增长的成果并没有被均匀分配。《2018年世界不平等报告》发现,1980年至2016年期间,世界上排名靠前的$1 \%$人口的实际收入增长是排名靠后的$50 \%$人口的两倍。同一份报告还显示,从中国、印度和撒哈拉以南非洲到美国和欧洲,收入不平等(收入最高的$10 \%$人在国民总收入中所占的份额)在世界各地都在加剧,程度各不相同。人们为这种日益加剧的不平等提供了各种各样的原因,包括政治权力分配的变化(Acemoglu和Robinson, 2008)、政治和经济机构的存在和实力(Acemoglu和Robinson, 2014)、财政和社会政策(Dervis和Qureshi, 2016)以及全球化和技术(Dabla-Norris等人,2015)。要理解技术如何影响不平等,考虑解释家庭收入分配的三种方式是有用的(联合国开发计划署,2013年)


初级收入分配是指家庭收入的分配,包括(有时是累积的)不同要素收入,如租金、工资和利润,这些收入是由市场和市场机构为每个家庭的不同生产要素确定的,不包括税收和补贴。第二次收入分配是扣除税收和包括转移支付(即由财政政策决定)后的家庭收入分配


第三次收入分配是指在税收和补贴之后,将公共支出的估算收益加到家庭收入之后的家庭收入分配。

经济代写|发展经济学代写发展经济学代考|是勒德分子的噩梦还是转瞬即逝的现象?


技术给社会带来了巨大的变化,或好或坏。迄今为止的叙述可能表明,这背后有勒德分子的黑手。${ }^3$


科技真的会创造一个真正的凯恩斯式的“休闲世界”吗?在这个世界里,科技取代了人类,人类享受更多的休闲时间。关于技术是否会取代或补充人类,众说纷纭。对于一些比较乐观的选民来说,现在的情况与过去并没有太大的不同。纵观历史,新技术最初伴随着工资停滞不前和不平等加剧。在19世纪早期的工业革命和19世纪末开始的电气化浪潮中都是如此。然而,几十年后,这些模式发生了逆转;多亏了新技术,大量的普通工人最终享受到了强劲的工资增长(Bessen, 2015)。蒸汽机取代了马车,赋予了“流动性”一词新的含义。在这个过程中,一些人失去了工作。但是,一个完整的运输业诞生了,它随后雇用了更多的人,并推动了欧洲和世界各地的工业化


无论人们对技术及其对社会和经济影响的持久性持乐观还是悲观的态度,在未来一段时间内,经济发展的总体范式将处于变化和不确定的状态。对一些人来说,第二次机器时代的回报无疑是巨大的。然而,未来几年真正发展的关键将是更公平地分配这些奖励。这需要政府、社会、企业和个人有意识地进行干预。变化的速度是逐渐的还是迅速的也是一个有待讨论的问题。然而,如果说过去5年自动化和人工智能的增长速度是某种迹象的话,变革的步伐将会加快。技术已经造成的破坏及其造成更多破坏的能力是政府和发展伙伴的经济发展努力的基础。在这方面,过去的经验可能无法提供足够的指导

经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考

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