# 经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考|CVEN5838

## 经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考|Geography – Implications for Sustainable Rural Development

In terms of geographic movement, a historically known pathway involved a rapid process of urbanization, as a natural consequence of movement towards manufacturing and services. Paradoxically, rural development in the context of structural transformation is also accompanied by a concentration of economic activity in urban areas. However, if the historical assumptions for development pathways do not hold true anymore and if the previous analysis on distribution of incomes and cross-sectoral movements materialize, it will mean that the existing rural-urban divide will be exacerbated further. The changing fundamentals of sustainable structural transformation, including premature de-industrialization call for attention to specific aspects of rural development. First, the role of rural non-farm economy will become more important in absorbing the excess labour from agriculture (Barret et al., 2015). The rural non-farm sector provides a crucial

bridge between commodity-based agriculture and livelihoods earned in the modern industrial and service sectors in urban centres (Haggblade et al., 2007). Many factors determine the nature and scope of rural populations’ participation in the non-farm economy, including asset endowments (such as land, livestock and real estate), quality of human resources and skills, quality of local governance, and linkages with urban markets (Davis and Bezemer, 2004; Haggblade et al., 2007). These are areas of interventions which require systematic policy-level efforts to calibrate focus away from an inherent urban bias in development planning towards a more nuanced and balanced rural focus (Bates, 1981).

Second, the shift of rural labour into the services sector will have to be more systematically geared towards high-productivity sectors (MoF, 2018; UNICRI, 2010). However, such sectors will inevitably carry skill premium in favour of high-skill workers. There is data to suggest that services can indeed substitute for manufacturing as the “escalator” out of poverty (Ghani and O’Connell, 2014). However, there is one major change from past pathways. The skill levels required in both manufacturing and services have been steadily increasing due to the proliferation of technology (Eichengreen and Gupta, 2011). If rural populations are to benefit from such jump, there will have to be more systematic efforts to erase the inherent disadvantages that rural populations face in terms of access to the services which will prepare them for the economy of tomorrow. These are covered in more detail below.

## 经济代写|发展经济学代写Development Economics代考|Dealing with Disruptions and Moving Forward

Education and employability. In recent decades, countries have built their education systems on two major assumptions: (i) a certain number of people will be absorbed into various kinds of employment based on the level of education attained, and (ii) education is a one-time endeavour, after which people will hold onto lifetime of employment. Technology will challenge these assumptions. Post-war prosperity involved mass absorption of workers into jobs requiring different mixes of skills, from process operatives in manufacturing or clerical administration to bankers, accountants and lawyers. Such jobs demanded robust schooling systems inculcating basic literacy and technical skills for low- and lower-middle-skilled workers and tertiary education for those in the middle-skilled and highly skilled jobs.
The disproportionate influence of technology will change the profile of lower- and middle-skilled jobs. Education systems will need to be realigned to prepare people for redefined jobs and economies. Inevitably, proliferation of technology creates a skill bias in labour markets (Acemoglu and Autor, 2010), as has been covered earlier. This will be a bigger challenge in developing countries because of their weaker financial and institutional capacities and because they start from a lower base. As the McKinsey report $A F u$ ture that Works states, education systems will need to evolve for a changed workplace. Policymakers will need to work with education providers to improve basic skills in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics, and to put a new emphasis on creativity, as well as on critical and systems thinking. This will better enable the workforce to move from agriculture to high-value manufacturing and services. In fact, this becomes even more critical for rural populations which are oftentimes marginalized in the educational sphere and elsewhere. In the absence of such a jump, the workforce might become embedded in low-productivity service sectors.
Rapid strides in technology will also mean that displaced workers of today will need to be accommodated in other jobs tomorrow. The labour force will need to constantly learn and keep up to date with technological advances. This will require institutions and systems for lifelong learning (UN DESA, 2017).

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## 经济代写|发展经济学代写发展经济学代考|处理中断和向前推进

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