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经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Interest groups as barriers to innovation
There’s another way in which monopolies can affect innovation. Imagine that monopolists use some of their profits to actually block the entry of new firms with better technologies – say, by paying off regulators to bar such entry. In fact, it may be a better deal than trying to come up with innovations! If that’s the case, then monopoly profits may actually facilitate the imposition of these barriers, by giving these monopolists more resources to invest in erecting barriers.
Monopolies are particularly dangerous in this regard, because they tend to be better able to act on behalf of their interests. Mancur Olson’s The Logic of Collective Action Olson (2009) argues that policy is a recurrent conflict between the objectives of concentrated interest groups and those of the general public, for which benefits and costs are typically diffused. According to Olson, the general public has less ability to organise collective action because each actor has less at stake, at least relative to concentrated interest groups, which thus have the upper hand when designing policy. In short, monopolies have an advantage in organising and influencing policy. One implication of this logic is that the seeds of the decline of an economy are contained in its early rise: innovation generates rents that help the development of special-interest lobbies that can then block innovation. This is the argument raised by Mancur Olson, again, in his 1983 book The Rise and Decline of Nations Olson (1983).
More recently, the theme of incumbents blocking innovation and development has been taken up by other authors. Parente and Prescott (1999) develop a model capturing this idea, and argue that the effects can be quantitatively large. Restricting the model so that it is consistent with a number of observations between rich and poor countries, they find that eliminating monopoly rights would increase GDP by roughly a factor of 3 ! Similarly, in their the popular book Why Nations Fail,Acemoglu and Robinson (2012) argue, with evidence from a tour de force through history and across every continent, that the typical outcome is that countries fail to develop because incumbents block innovation and disruption.
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Scale effects
The models of the previous section delivered a specific but fundamental result: scale effects. In other words, they predict that the growth rates will increase with the size of the population or markets. Intuitively, as we discussed, there are two sides to this coin. On the supply side, if growth depends on ideas, and ideas are produced by people, having more people means having more ideas. On the demand side, ideas are a fixed cost – once you produce a blueprint for a flying car, you can produce an arbitrary amount of flying cars using the same blueprint – and having a larger market enables one to further dilute that fixed cost.
The big question is: do the data support that prediction? Kremer (1993) argues that over the (very) long run of history the predictions of a model with scale effects are verified. He does so by considering what scale effects imply for population growth, which is determined endogenously in his model: population growth is increasing in population. He goes on to test this by checking that, using data from $1,000,000$ B.C. to 1990 , it does seem to be the case that population growth increases with population size. He also shows that, comparing regions that are isolated from each other (e.g. the continents over pre-modern history), those with greater population displayed faster technological progress.
This suggests that scale effects are present on a global scale, but that remains controversial. For instance, Jones (1995) argues that the data does not support the function in (6.2). For example, the number of scientists involved in R\&D grew manifold in the post-World War II period without an increase in the rate of productivity growth. Instead, he argues that the evidence backs a modified version of the innovation production function, in which we would adapt (6.2) to look like this:
with $\beta>0$. This means that ideas have a diminishing return as you need more people to generate the same rate of innovation. In a world like this, research may deliver a constant rate of innovation (such as the so-called Moore’s law on the evolution of the processing capability of computers), but only due to substantially more resources devoted to the activity. This model leads to growth without scale effects, which Jones (1995) refers to as semi-endogenous growth.
It is also worth thinking about what scale effects mean for individual countries. Even if there are scale effects for the global economy, it seems quite obvious that they arent really there for individual countries: it’s not as if Denmark has grown that much slower than the U.S., relative to the enormous difference in size of the two economies. This can be for two reasons. First, countries are not fully isolated from each other, so the benefits of scale leak across borders. Put simply, Danish firms can have access to the U.S. market (and beyond) via trade. This immediately generates a potential connection between trade policy and growth, operating via scale effects. A second reason, on the flip-side, is that countries are not fully integrated domestically, i.e. there are internal barriers to trade that prevent countries from benefiting from their size. A paper by Ramondo et al. (2016) investigates the two possibilities, calibrating a model where countries are divided into regions, and find that the second point is a lot more important in explaining why the Denmarks of the world aren’t a lot poorer than the Indias and Chinas and U.S.
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Interest groups as barriers to innovation
垄断还有另一种影响创新的方式。想象一下，垄断者利用他们的部分利润实际上阻止了拥有更好技术的新公司的进入——例如，通过向监管机构支付费用以阻止此类进入。事实上，这可能比试图提出创新更划算！如果是这样的话，那么垄断利润实际上可能会促进这些壁垒的设置，通过给这些垄断者更多的资源来投资设置壁垒。
垄断在这方面特别危险，因为它们往往能够更好地代表自己的利益行事。Mancur Olson 的集体行动逻辑 Olson (2009) 认为，政策是集中利益集团的目标与公众目标之间的反复冲突，通常会分散利益和成本。根据奥尔森的说法，公众组织集体行动的能力较低，因为每个参与者的风险较小，至少相对于集中的利益集团而言，后者在设计政策时占上风。简而言之，垄断在组织和影响政策方面具有优势。这种逻辑的一个含义是，经济衰退的种子包含在它的早期崛起中：创新产生的租金有助于特殊利益游说团的发展，这些游说团可能会阻碍创新。这是 Mancur Olson 在其 1983 年出版的《国家的兴衰》（The Rise and Decline of Nations Olson，1983）中再次提出的论点。
最近，其他作者提出了现有企业阻碍创新和发展的主题。Parente 和 Prescott (1999) 开发了一个模型来捕捉这个想法，并认为效果可以在数量上很大。限制模型使其与富国和穷国之间的许多观察结果一致，他们发现消除垄断权将使 GDP 增加大约 3 倍！同样，Acemoglu 和 Robinson（2012 年）在他们的畅销书《为什么国家会失败》中指出，通过历史和各大洲的巡回演出的证据，典型的结果是国家未能发展，因为在位者阻碍了创新和破坏。
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Scale effects
上一节的模型提供了一个具体但基本的结果：规模效应。换句话说，他们预测增长率将随着人口或市场的规模而增加。正如我们所讨论的，直观地说，这枚硬币有两个方面。在供给方面，如果增长取决于想法，想法是由人产生的，那么拥有更多的人意味着拥有更多的想法。在需求方面，创意是固定成本——一旦你为飞行汽车制作了蓝图，你就可以使用相同的蓝图生产任意数量的飞行汽车——拥有更大的市场可以进一步稀释固定成本。
最大的问题是：数据是否支持该预测？Kremer (1993) 认为，在（非常）长期的历史中，具有规模效应的模型的预测得到了验证。他通过考虑规模效应对人口增长意味着什么来做到这一点，这在他的模型中是内生的：人口增长正在人口增长。他继续通过检查来测试这一点，使用来自1,000,000从公元前到 1990 年，人口增长似乎随着人口规模的增加而增加。他还表明，比较彼此孤立的地区（例如前现代历史上的大陆），人口较多的地区显示出更快的技术进步。
这表明规模效应存在于全球范围内，但这仍然存在争议。例如，Jones (1995) 认为数据不支持 (6.2) 中的函数。例如，参与研发的科学家数量在二战后时期成倍增长，而生产率增长率却没有提高。相反，他认为证据支持创新生产函数的修改版本，我们将在其中修改（6.2）看起来像这样
：b>0. 这意味着想法的回报会递减，因为您需要更多的人来产生相同的创新速度。在这样的世界中，研究可能会带来恒定的创新速度（例如关于计算机处理能力发展的所谓摩尔定律），但这仅仅是因为投入了更多的资源。该模型导致没有规模效应的增长，Jones (1995) 将其称为半内生增长。
规模效应对各个国家意味着什么也值得思考。即使全球经济存在规模效应，但似乎很明显，它们并没有真正存在于个别国家：相对于两个经济体规模的巨大差异，丹麦的增长速度并没有比美国慢得多。这可能有两个原因。首先，国家之间并没有完全孤立，因此规模的好处会跨国界泄漏。简而言之，丹麦公司可以通过贸易进入美国市场（及其他市场）。这立即在贸易政策和增长之间产生了潜在的联系，通过规模效应运作。另一方面，第二个原因是各国在国内没有完全一体化，即 贸易存在内部壁垒，使各国无法从其规模中受益。Ramondo 等人的论文。(2016) 调查了这两种可能性，校准了一个将国家划分为区域的模型，并发现第二点在解释为什么世界上的丹麦人并不比印度、中国和美国穷很多方面更为重要
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