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金融代写|投资组合代写Investment Portfolio代考|Business Cycle Analysis
The trend rate of economic growth provides a vital anchor for setting very long-run investment expectations, which in turn provide a starting point for developing projections over short- to intermediate-term horizons. Virtually by definition, deviations from trend wash out in the long run, making information about the current economic and market environment of limited value over very long horizons. Over short to intermediate horizons, however, such information can be very important. From a macroeconomic perspective, the most useful such information typically pertains to fluctuations associated with the business cycle.
It is useful to think of fluctuations in economic activity as a superposition of many cycles varying in frequency from very short (days) to very long (decades), each with stochastic amplitude. The business cycle is not a specific, well-defined cycle. It is the result of many intermediate frequency cycles that jointly generate most of the variation in aggregate economic activity (i.e., GDP) around the trend. This fact explains why historical business cycles have varied in both duration and intensity-each was a different realization of a range of underlying stochastic cycles. It also helps to explain why it is difficult to project turning points in real time.
At a fundamental level, the business cycle arises in response to the interaction of uncertainty, expectational errors, and rigidities that prevent instantaneous adjustment to unexpected events. It reflects decisions that
a. are made based on imperfect information and/or analysis with the expectation of future benefits,
b. require significant current resources and/or time to implement, and
c. are difficult and/or costly to reverse.
Such decisions are, broadly defined, investment decisions. Much of the uncertainty that sustains the cycle is endogenous to the system. Competitors, suppliers, employers, creditors, customers, and policymakers do not behave as expected. Prices and quantities adjust more or less than expected. Other sources of uncertainty are more exogenous. Technological breakthroughs threaten to disrupt whole industries and/or create new ones. Fracking, gene sequencing, e-commerce, “big data,” digital advertising, cybersecurity, 3-D printing, the internet of things, and driverless cars are among those now playing out. Weather patterns affect agriculture, construction, and transportation. Natural disasters devastate local economies. Political and geopolitical shifts favor some entities and disadvantage others. And, of course, shocks in one part of the global economy are often transmitted to other parts of the world through trade relations, financial markets, and the prices of goods and services.
Numerous variables can be used to monitor the business cycle. Among them are GDP growth, industrial production (IP), employment/unemployment, purchasing managers’ indexes, orders for durable goods, the output gap (the difference between GDP estimated as if the economy were on its trend growth path and the actual value of GDP), and the leading indicator indexes discussed earlier.
金融代写|投资组合代写Investment Portfolio代考|Phases of the Business Cycle
There are various ways to delineate phases of the business cycle. The most obvious is to divide it into two primary segments (the expansion and the contraction) with two key turning points at which growth changes sign (the peak and the trough). These two periods are fairly easy to identify, at least in retrospect. Subdividing the cycle more finely is more ambiguous, even in retrospect, because it requires identifying more nuanced changes such as acceleration or deceleration of growth without a change in direction. Nonetheless, it is useful to divide the cycle into several phases distinguished through both economic and financial market characteristics. For the purpose of setting expectations for capital markets, we use five phases of the business cycle here: initial recovery, early expansion, late expansion, slowdown, and contraction. The first four occur within the overall expansion.
- Initial recovery. This period is usually a short phase of a few months beginning at the trough of the cycle in which the economy picks up, business confidence rises, stimulative policies are still in place, the output gap is large, and inflation is typically decelerating. Recovery is often supported by an upturn in spending on housing and consumer durables.
Capital market effects: Short-term rates and government bond yields are low. Bond yields may continue to decline in anticipation of further disinflation but are likely to be bottoming. Stock markets may rise briskly as fears of a longer recession (or even a depression) dissipate. Cyclical assets-and riskier assets, such as small stocks, higher-yield corporate bonds, and emerging market equities and bonds-attract investors and typically perform well.
- Early expansion. The economy is gaining some momentum, unemployment starts to fall but the output gap remains negative, consumers borrow and spend, and businesses step up production and investment. Profits typically rise rapidly. Demand for housing and consumer durables is strong.
Capital market effects. Short rates are moving up as the central bank starts to withdraw stimulus put in place during the recession. Longer-maturity bond yields are likely to be stable or rising slightly. The yield curve is flattening. Stocks trend upward.
金融代写|投资组合代写Investment Portfolio代考|Business Cycle Analysis
经济增长率的趋势速度为设定非常长期的投资预期提供了重要依据，而这反过来又为制定中短期预测提供了起点。实际上，根据定义，从长远来看，与趋势的偏差会消失，从而使有关当前经济和市场环境的信息在很长一段时间内价值有限。然而，从短期到中期，这些信息可能非常重要。从宏观经济的角度来看，最有用的此类信息通常与与商业周期相关的波动有关。
将经济活动的波动视为许多周期的叠加是有用的，这些周期的频率从非常短（几天）到非常长（几十年）不等，每个周期都有随机幅度。商业周期不是一个特定的、定义明确的周期。这是许多中频周期共同产生围绕趋势的总体经济活动（即GDP）的大部分变化的结果。这一事实解释了为什么历史商业周期的持续时间和强度都不同——每一个都是对一系列潜在随机周期的不同实现。这也有助于解释为什么难以实时预测转折点。
从根本上说，商业周期的出现是为了应对不确定性、预期误差和阻止对意外事件进行瞬时调整的僵化性的相互作用。它反映了
a. 是基于不完善的信息和/或对未来收益的预期分析而制定的，
b．需要大量当前资源和/或时间来实施，以及
c．难以逆转和/或逆转成本高昂。
从广义上讲，此类决策是投资决策。维持循环的大部分不确定性是系统内生的。竞争对手、供应商、雇主、债权人、客户和政策制定者的行为不符合预期。价格和数量的调整或多或少超出预期。其他不确定性来源更为外生。技术突破可能会破坏整个行业和/或创造新的行业。水力压裂、基因测序、电子商务、“大数据”、数字广告、网络安全、3D 打印、物联网和无人驾驶汽车都在其中。天气模式会影响农业、建筑和交通。自然灾害摧毁了当地经济。政治和地缘政治变化有利于一些实体，而对另一些实体不利。而且当然，
许多变量可用于监控商业周期。其中包括 GDP 增长、工业生产 (IP)、就业/失业、采购经理人指数、耐用品订单、产出缺口（假设经济处于趋势增长路径时估计的 GDP 与实际价值之间的差异） GDP）和前面讨论的领先指标指数。
金融代写|投资组合代写Investment Portfolio代考|Phases of the Business Cycle
有多种方法可以描绘商业周期的各个阶段。最明显的是将其分为两个主要部分（扩张和收缩），其中有两个关键转折点，在这些转折点处增长变化迹象（高峰和低谷）。这两个时期很容易识别，至少现在回想起来。即使回想起来，更精细地细分周期也会更加模糊，因为它需要在不改变方向的情况下识别更细微的变化，例如增长的加速或减速。尽管如此，将周期分为几个阶段是有用的，这些阶段通过经济和金融市场特征加以区分。为了设定对资本市场的预期，我们在这里使用商业周期的五个阶段：初期复苏、早期扩张、后期扩张、放缓和收缩。
- 初步恢复。这一时期通常是几个月的短暂阶段，始于经济回暖、商业信心上升、刺激政策仍在实施、产出缺口很大、通胀通常正在减速的周期低谷。住房和耐用消费品支出的回升通常会支持经济复苏。
资本市场效应：短期利率和政府债券收益率较低。由于预期进一步通缩，债券收益率可能会继续下降，但很可能触底。随着对长期衰退（甚至是萧条）的担忧消散，股市可能会迅速上涨。周期性资产和风险较高的资产，如小型股票、高收益公司债券以及新兴市场股票和债券——吸引投资者并且通常表现良好。
- 早期扩张。经济正在获得一些动力，失业率开始下降，但产出缺口仍然为负，消费者借贷和消费，企业增加生产和投资。利润通常会迅速上升。对住房和耐用消费品的需求强劲。
资本市场效应。随着中央银行开始撤回在经济衰退期间实施的刺激措施，短期利率正在上升。较长期债券收益率可能稳定或小幅上升。收益率曲线趋于平缓。股票趋势向上。
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