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金融代写|金融风险管理代写Financial Risk Management代考|DATA AND METHODOLOGY
This study uses two types of information, related to fires and companies affected by them, to identify situations where the risk of liquidity shocks becomes evident. The fact that fires are used as a source for study results from several beliefs. First, a fire is seen as an imminent risk as it causes great impact and catches people’s attention, depending on its size, leaving marks on their minds. Then, this attention that is aroused varies depending on how close businesses are to the affected locations, the greater the closer they are. Finally, fires are phenomena that can affect a large number of companies.
According to Yin (2003), various sources of evidence are used when collecting data about a company, levels of analysis, and contextual elements. In this case, a quantitative methodology was used, based on the use of information available in mainly two databases.
Information on fires was obtained from the ICNF database by extracting their locations, dates, and impacts in terms of burnt area for the period from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2015 . There is also information regarding the affected companies through the SABI database, encompassing a set of variables such as total assets, cash amounts, debt levels, and current assets, among others, to assess the impact of fires in the same period.
Regarding information about companies, filters were applied to the results. First, companies were withdrawn from regulated sectors such as the financial, education, health, and public administration, and defense sectors. Then companies were chosen only with an independence indicator level between $\mathrm{B}$ – and $\mathrm{A}+$ (high), which is necessary for financial decision making. In this case, a level of $\mathrm{B}-$ to $\mathrm{B}+$ means that in the companies there is no registered shareholder with more than $50 \%$ direct, indirect, or full participation, and one or more registered shareholders with more than $25 \%$ direct or total participation. An A- to A + level encompasses companies where there is no shareholder with more than $25 \%$ direct or full ownership, being classified as “independent companies”.
Finally, only small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will be analyzed which, according to the definition of the European Commission (2003), are those that 1. Have a total number of workers less than 250 ; 2. Have an annual turnover of less than or equal to EUR 50 million or a total balance sheet of less than or equal to EUR 43 million. In this case, companies that do not exceed these limits are considered in any of the years under review. This group of companies also excluded micro-enterprises, which are those with a total number of employees of less than 10 and an annual turnover of less than or equal to EUR 2 million or a total balance sheet of less than EUR 2 million.
Microenterprises were excluded because, due to their size and consequent low number of employees (some may be sole proprietorships), they did not initially, in principle, have someone dedicated specifically to the treatment of accounting and financial information, which could result in the submission of this information not as correct or complete as would be desirable. On the other hand, large companies have been excluded because they have financial resources that others do not have (such as easier access to external financing sources compared to SMEs) and as such can address the issue analyzed by other avenues, than not the change in cash amounts. Besides, some of these are quoted on the stock exchange, which would require the use of a different analysis model (such as that used by Dessaint and Matray $(2017)$ or that used by Ferreira and Vilela (2004), which consider as variable the market-to-book ratio, which is calculated taking into account the companies’ market value).
金融代写|金融风险管理代写Financial Risk Management代考|RESULTS DISCUSSION
About the sample under study, it is made up of SMEs, with average total assets of 1,175.84 thousand euros and an average turnover of $849.25$ thousand euros, with 38,574 companies and 270,018 observations in Portugal (Table 7). These companies have a liability $3.61$ times greater than the amount of Equity (LEV), and this liability is $7.9 \%$ for short-term debt to financial institutions (BANKD). Thus, most external financing is long-term, as it constitutes $29.5 \%$ of the total liabilities (LDEBT). The average cash amounts of Portuguese SMEs are $17.7 \%$ of total assets (Cash).
To analyze whether or not the companies studied are similar before the fire events, Table 8 was constructed. This table presents, in the first part, the average values of the variables one year before the fire events, to verify if these are similar or not before the effect of the ‘treatment’ of the fires, leading to the loss of one year in the sample period. Later, hypothesis tests were performed to test if there are differences between the variables of the two zones studied, whether or not they are statistically significant. Thus, if there are no statistically significant differences, it can be argued that the disparities between companies located in the neighbohhoud and companies located in the rest of Portugal are caused by the effect of the fire treatment. Also, this analysis makes it possible to verify whether these differences have recurred over the years of the sample period or only in some of the years.
Thus, companies are defined taking into account the location of their headquarters. The last columns of Table 8 show, for each year, the t-statistics of a two-sample test for equality of means between treatment and control group companies and the z-values of a median test. This first analysis will then further analyze the effect of the imminence of an event on the risk perceived by the managers of a company through the cash held after the occurrence of a fire.
金融代写|金融风险管理代写Financial Risk Management代考|DATA AND METHODOLOGY
本研究使用与火灾和受火灾影响的公司相关的两类信息来确定流动性冲击风险变得明显的情况。火灾被用作研究来源的事实源于多种信念。首先，火灾被视为迫在眉睫的危险，因为它会产生巨大的影响并引起人们的注意，具体取决于其大小，并在他们的脑海中留下痕迹。然后，引起的这种关注会因企业与受影响地点的距离而异，距离越近。最后，火灾是会影响大量公司的现象。
根据 Yin (2003) 的说法，在收集有关公司、分析水平和背景元素的数据时，会使用各种证据来源。在这种情况下，使用了一种定量方法，基于对主要两个数据库中可用信息的使用。
通过从 2009 年 1 月 1 日至 2015 年 12 月 31 日期间的燃烧面积方面提取火灾的位置、日期和影响，从 ICNF 数据库中获得了火灾信息。SABI 数据库还提供有关受影响公司的信息，包括一组变量，例如总资产、现金金额、债务水平和流动资产等，以评估同期火灾的影响。
关于公司信息，过滤器应用于结果。首先，公司从金融、教育、卫生、公共管理和国防等受监管部门撤出。然后仅选择具有以下独立性指标水平的公司乙- 和一个+（高），这是财务决策所必需的。在这种情况下，一个级别乙−至乙+意味着在公司中没有注册股东超过50%直接、间接或完全参与，以及一名或多名注册股东超过25%直接或完全参与。A- 到 A + 级别包括没有股东超过25%直接或完全所有权，被归类为“独立公司”。
最后，将只分析根据欧盟委员会 (2003) 的定义， 1. 工人总数少于 250 人的中小型企业 (SME)；2. 年营业额小于或等于 5000 万欧元或资产负债表总额小于或等于 4300 万欧元。在这种情况下，不超过这些限制的公司将被考虑在任何审查年度。这组公司还排除了微型企业，即员工总数少于 10 人、年营业额少于或等于 200 万欧元或资产负债表总额少于 200 万欧元的微型企业。
微型企业被排除在外，因为由于它们的规模和随之而来的雇员人数较少（一些可能是独资企业），它们最初原则上没有专门负责处理会计和财务信息的人员，这可能导致提交这些信息的正确或完整程度不如预期。另一方面，大公司被排除在外，因为它们拥有其他人没有的财务资源（例如与中小企业相比更容易获得外部融资来源），因此可以解决其他途径分析的问题，而不是改变现金金额。此外，其中一些是在证券交易所报价的，这需要使用不同的分析模型（例如 Dessaint 和 Matray 使用的模型）(2017)或者 Ferreira 和 Vilela (2004) 使用的，他们认为市账率是可变的，计算时考虑了公司的市场价值）。
金融代写|金融风险管理代写Financial Risk Management代考|RESULTS DISCUSSION
关于所研究的样本，它由中小企业组成，平均总资产为 117.584 万欧元，平均营业额为849.25千欧元，在葡萄牙有 38,574 家公司和 270,018 次观察（表 7）。这些公司有责任3.61倍于权益 (LEV) 的金额，并且该负债是7.9%对金融机构的短期债务 (BANKD)。因此，大多数外部融资是长期的，因为它构成29.5%总负债 (LDEBT)。葡萄牙中小企业的平均现金金额为17.7%总资产（现金）。
为了分析所研究的公司在火灾事件之前是否相似，我们构建了表 8。该表在第一部分中显示了火灾事件前一年变量的平均值，以验证这些变量在火灾“处理”效果之前是否相似，导致损失一年采样周期。随后，进行假设检验以检验所研究的两个区域的变量之间是否存在差异，无论它们是否具有统计学意义。因此，如果没有统计学上的显着差异，则可以认为位于邻里的公司与位于葡萄牙其他地区的公司之间的差异是由火灾处理的影响造成的。还，
因此，公司的定义考虑了其总部的位置。表 8 的最后一列显示，对于每一年，治疗组公司和对照组公司之间均值相等的双样本检验的 t 统计量和中位数检验的 z 值。然后，第一个分析将进一步分析事件的紧迫性对公司经理通过火灾发生后持有的现金所感知的风险的影响。
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