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金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|Price-to-Book

Price/Book is frequently used as a “value” screen – that is, as a way to identify undervalued stocks. It is the basis of the original definition in the academic literature of the so-called “Value Factor” – one of the first significant adjustments to the strict Efficient Market Hypothesis: ${ }^{109}$
$$
\frac{\text { price/share }}{\text { book value / share }}
$$
However, the reliance on Book Value to construct this metric is problematic. Its proponents see it as a conservative choice, but it is “conservative” mainly because accounting rules tie balance sheet values to historical cost – which is usually out of date, by design. ${ }^{110}$ More serious is the fact that Book Value ignores major classes of business assets that are becoming more important as the economy evolves – assets like technology, brand, and monetizable data. It is not surprising therefore that $\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{B}$ today is typically found to be among the least successful metrics in tracking market returns, the least “valuerelevant.” One study concludes “it would appear to be a myth that price/book carries a special meaning.”111

This was not always the case. Joseph Mezrich of Nomura Securities has analyzed the evolution of the P/B signal over the past several decades. In the mid-1980s, Price-to-Book was in fact the number one “driver” of market returns out of 21 value metrics studied (including P/E Trailing and Forward, EV/EBITDA, the PEG ratio, Dividend Yield, etc.). But by 2010, Price-to-Book was dead last. ${ }^{112}$ In other words, P/B shifted from being a strong BUY signal to become, if anything, a strong SELL signal. (See Figure 3-16.) A 2015 article, citing Mezrich, quantified the significance of this effect: Stocks that were cheap based on book value [i.e those with a low P/B] began to track a company’s chance of default, while cheap stocks based on earnings [low $\mathrm{P} / \mathrm{E}$ ] became closely linked with profitability… So far this year [2015] while the cheapest stocks based on book value have lagged behind the most expensive ones by 15 percentage points, the cheapest on earnings have outperformed the most expensive by $13.6$ points. ${ }^{113}$

金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|Return-on-Assets

ROA is not a market metric; hence, there is no per-share calculation. It illuminates a straightforward question: What is the profit generated in a given period from the company’s asset base? How efficiently is the company using its invested capital? There are no mysteries about its significance (as there are with Price/Earnings). If two businesses have the same ensemble of assets – say, identical factories – and one is twice as profitable as the other, this ought to tell us something very concrete about its relative value:
$$
\frac{\text { earnings }}{\text { net assets }}
$$
ROA is part of the family of related metrics that stem from the original idea of Return on Investment, including ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) and ROE (Return on Equity). The focus of all these ratios is on fundamental business productivity – that is, its profitability – rather than market value, although there is a general assumption that a more profitable business should translate into higher share prices. And to the extent that the value of a business is based on the profitability of its operations, as a going concern (rather than the static value of its assets), measures like ROA should in theory be a useful tool for assessing enterprise valuation.

Indeed, in Mezrich’s analysis, Return on Equity (ROE, a close cousin of ROA) moved up to the number one position among his selection of 22 value metrics after the year $2000 .$

I have charted the interrelationships of several market valuation metrics for a small and rather diverse sample of prominent US public companies. ${ }^{124}$ Interestingly, P/E is essentially unrelated to profitability metrics such as Gross Margin, Operating Margin, and Net Margin. (See Figure 3-18.) P/B and P/S fare no better.

金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|BUS-F529

金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|Price-to-Book

价格/账面价值经常被用作“价值”屏幕——即作为识别被低估股票的一种方式。它是学术文献中对所谓“价值因素”的原始定义的基础——这是对严格有效市场假设的第一次重大调整:109

 价格/股  账面价值/份额 
然而,依赖账面价值来构建这个指标是有问题的。它的支持者认为这是一个保守的选择,但它是“保守的”主要是因为会计规则将资产负债表价值与历史成本联系起来——这通常是过时的,在设计上。110更严重的是,账面价值忽略了随着经济发展而变得越来越重要的主要业务资产类别——技术、品牌和可货币化数据等资产。因此也就不足为奇了磷/乙今天通常被认为是跟踪市场回报最不成功的指标之一,也是最不“价值相关”的指标。一项研究得出结论,“价格/书本具有特殊含义似乎是一个神话。”111

情况并非总是如此。野村证券的约瑟夫·梅兹里奇(Joseph Mezrich)分析了过去几十年市账率信号的演变。在 1980 年代中期,在所研究的 21 个价值指标(包括 P/E Trailing and Forward、EV/EBITDA、PEG ratio、Dividend Yield 等)中,市净率实际上是市场回报的第一“驱动力” .)。但到了 2010 年,Price-to-Book 排名最后。112换言之,市净率从强烈的买入信号转变为(如果有的话)强烈的卖出信号。(见图 3-16。) 2015 年的一篇文章引用了 Mezrich,量化了这种影响的重要性:基于账面价值的廉价股票(即 P/B 低的股票)开始追踪公司的违约机会,而基于收益的廉价股票[低磷/和] 与盈利能力密切相关……今年到目前为止 [2015] 虽然基于账面价值的最便宜的股票落后于最昂贵的股票 15 个百分点,但收益最便宜的股票的表现优于最昂贵的股票13.6点。113

金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|Return-on-Assets

ROA 不是市场指标;因此,没有每股计算。它阐明了一个直截了当的问题:公司资产基础在特定时期内产生的利润是多少?公司使用其投资资本的效率如何?它的重要性没有什么神秘之处(就像价格/收益一样)。如果两家企业拥有相同的资产集合——例如,相同的工厂——并且一个企业的利润是另一个企业的两倍,那么这应该可以告诉我们一些关于其相对价值的非常具体的信息:

 收益  净资产 
ROA 是源自投资回报率最初概念的相关指标系列的一部分,包括 ROIC(投资资本回报率)和 ROE(股本回报率)。所有这些比率的重点是基本的企业生产力——即其盈利能力——而不是市场价值,尽管普遍假设更有利可图的业务应该转化为更高的股价。如果企业的价值基于其运营的盈利能力,作为持续经营(而不是其资产的静态价值),ROA 等指标理论上应该是评估企业估值的有用工具。

事实上,在 Mezrich 的分析中,股本回报率(ROE,ROA 的近亲)在他选择的 22 个价值指标中排名第一2000.

我为一小部分美国知名上市公司样本绘制了几个市场估值指标的相互关系图。124有趣的是,市盈率本质上与毛利率、营业利润率和净利润率等盈利指标无关。(见图 3-18。) P/B 和 P/S 的表现也好不到哪里去。

金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考

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