# 金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|BSE58

## 金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|Adjustments to the Denominator

Stock prices are volatile. Earnings are volatile. The P/E Multiple is doubly afflicted, with volatility in both the numerator and the denominator. Yet we presume that the underlying intrinsic value of the firm is not so unstable, that it changes more slowly and with fewer discontinuities. So how can we compensate for the jumpiness in the metric?

An obvious answer is to average the signal over a longer time period. Volatility is a time-domain phenomenon which affects data sets in many branches of science. Longer observation windows can help smooth out the noise and sometimes clarify the underlying signal. Early investment theorists recognized this and argued pragmatically for metrics calculated over a multi-year period. ${ }^{125}$

Academics eventually caught up to the problem. In the 1980 s, economist Robert Shiller studied the problem of “excess” volatility in stock prices and found that indeed “measures of stock price volatility over the past century appear to be too high – five to thirteen times too high – to be attributed to new information about dividends.” This was a blow to the Dividend Discount theory of share prices and an early crack in the facade of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. ${ }^{126}$ (We will we have more to say about this paper in the Appendix on problems with the DCF model.) In a subsequent article, the idea of “a long moving average” of earnings was tentatively introduced. ${ }^{127}$ Later Shiller applied the averaging concept to the P/E Multiple, settling on a 10-year time-averaging window, with an inflation adjustment – and the Cyclically Adjusted P/E, or CAPE, was born. The branding nomenclature – “cyclically adjusted” – referred to the claim that the 10 -year window was designed to even out the effects of the normal business cycle (expansion/ recession/recovery).

CAPE has caught the fancy of the media in recent years. It has tended to run “hot” in the last decade – generating what can look like alarming signals that the market is overpriced. (CAPE is often applied to the entire market.) It serves as a prompt for cautionary analyses of market trends.

## 金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|Accounting Changes

A major problem with CAPE is similar to the problem with PE1: the changing accounting rules that affect the definition of Earnings. We will consider this question more broadly in Chapter 6, but with respect to CAPE, several examples stand out in the published commentaries:

• FASB 142: A 2001 change in the treatment of so-called goodwill and other intangible assets
• FASB 123R: A 2004 revision of the rules for expensing of stock options issued to employees as compensation
• Mark-to-Market accounting generally, applied extensively following the 2008 financial crisis

The official statement for FASB 142 warned explicitly that “there may be more volatility in reported income than under previous standards.” ${ }^{131}$ The magnitude of this change has been estimated at over $\$ 300 \mathrm{Bn}$. The question of expensing employee options (FASB$123)$generated even more controversy and continues to do so.${ }^{132}$And Mark-to-Market accounting can force write-downs of impaired assets held on companies’ books when their market value has demonstrably declined, but does not permit “write-ups” unless the assets are sold.${ }^{133}$In terms of the accuracy of the metric, all of these accounting changes will affect CAPE when they fall inside the 10-year averaging window. CAPE values on either side of such an accounting change will be inconsistent with each other.${ }^{134}$## 金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|Adjustments to the Denominator 股价波动较大。收益波动较大。市盈率倍数受到双重影响，分子和分母都有波动。然而，我们假设公司的潜在内在价值并没有那么不稳定，它变化得更慢，不连续性也更少。那么我们如何补偿指标中的跳跃性呢？ 一个明显的答案是在更长的时间段内对信号进行平均。波动性是一种时域现象，会影响许多科学分支中的数据集。更长的观察窗口可以帮助消除噪音，有时还可以澄清潜在的信号。早期的投资理论家认识到这一点，并务实地论证了在多年期间计算的指标。125 学者们最终发现了这个问题。在 1980 年代，经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）研究了股票价格“过度”波动的问题，并发现确实“过去一​​个世纪的股票价格波动的衡量标准似乎太高了——太高了 5 到 13 倍——不能归因于有关股息的新信息。” 这是对股价股息贴现理论的打击，也是有效市场假说的早期裂痕。126（我们将在关于 DCF 模型问题的附录中对这篇论文进行更多说明。）在随后的文章中，暂时引入了收益的“长期移动平均线”的概念。127后来，席勒将平均概念应用于市盈率倍数，确定了一个 10 年的时间平均窗口，并进行了通胀调整——周期调整市盈率或 CAPE 诞生了。品牌命名法——“周期性调整”——指的是这样一种说法，即 10 年窗口旨在平衡正常商业周期（扩张/衰退/复苏）的影响。 CAPE近年来受到了媒体的关注。在过去十年中，它趋于“火爆”——产生了看似令人担忧的信号，表明市场定价过高。（CAPE 通常应用于整个市场。）它可以作为对市场趋势进行谨慎分析的提示。 ## 金融代写|股权市场代写Equity Market代考|Accounting Changes CAPE 的一个主要问题与 PE1 的问题相似：不断变化的会计规则会影响收益的定义。我们将在第 6 章更广泛地考虑这个问题，但关于 CAPE，已发表的评论中有几个例子很突出： • FASB 142：2001 年对所谓商誉和其他无形资产的处理方式的变化 • FASB 123R：2004 年对作为补偿发行给员工的股票期权费用规则的修订 • 一般按市值计价的会计，在 2008 年金融危机后得到广泛应用 FASB 142 的官方声明明确警告说，“报告收入的波动性可能比以前的标准更大。”131这种变化的幅度估计超过$300乙n. 费用化员工期权的问题（FASB123)引发了更大的争议，并继续这样做。132当市场价值明显下降时，按市值计价会计可以强制减记公司账面上持有的减值资产，但除非资产被出售，否则不允许“减记”。133

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